Author/s:

Hasan, M.
Alamgir, M.
Alauddin, M.
Jakaria, M.
Sarker, M.

Publisher:

The University of Queensland, Australia

Year of Publication:

2018

Abstract

Significant manifestations of adverse effects of climate change exist for crop agriculture throughout the developing word including Bangladesh. Despite wheat being the second most important staple crop, any rigorous analysis of its sensitivity to climate change remains a neglected area. This paper fills this gap by investigating wheat yield sensitivity to climate change over time and across climatic zones using 45-year panel data; and exploring policy implications for achieving SDG2 (food security) and SDG6 (sustainable water management) through expanded wheat cultivation. Average seasonal temperature and number of seasonal dry days trended upwards while rainfall (planting, flowering, harvesting) while bright sunshine trended downwards. Rise in average temperature, number of dry days, and relative humidity had adverse effects on wheat yield. Planting and flowering stage rainfall and sunnier weather conditions improved yield. Significant variations across regions and a positive time trend were evident implying technological progress. Strengthening institutional support systems, market accessibility, and science-driven climate change adaptation including generation and wider dissemination of drought tolerant wheat varieties, and enhancing farmers’ capacity to switch from rice to wheat constitute key areas of policy intervention. This will help ensure food security alongside sustainable water management.

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