Hafezi, M.
Mackey, B.
Sahin, O.
Stewart, R.
Ware, D.

This paper presents an ongoing research towards a systems modelling framework to support ecosystem-based climate change adaptation (CCA) planning and decision making for small island developing states (SIDS), employing a structured process, coupling two approaches; Bayesian Networks (BNs) and System Dynamics (SD). The development of successful CCA adaptation plans requires a structured risk assessment process capable of dealing with systems that are uncertain, complex, and subject to spatial and temporal variability. Additionally, CCA risk assessment and identifying and evaluating adaptation options must be able to accommodate interdisciplinary expertise and facilitate stakeholder engagement. The integration of BNs and SD with the support of structural analysis has the potential to generate useful information necessary for successful CCA planning as both BNs and SD have their particular benefits and limitations, and coupling these modelling tools can maximize their respective advantages by covering the other’s limitations.

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